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Outlooks energéticos

The long-term reports published by international agencies, oil companies and consultancies: what each one covers, when it comes out, what it says about oil and gas, and where to read it.

How to read an outlook

A scenario is not a forecast. Most lay out several possible futures depending on what governments, technology and geopolitics do. Comparing one outlook's "current policies" scenario with another's "net zero" leads to wrong conclusions.
Each has its own view. OPEC represents the producers and tends to see more oil demand; the IEA was created in 1974 as the agency of the consuming countries; oil companies use their scenarios to justify their strategy. Reading several at once is the best way to see the range of what is possible.
Look at the assumptions. Economic growth, population, carbon price, electric cars and efficiency explain almost all of the differences.
For the short term, the references are the EIA's STEO (monthly) and the monthly IEA and OPEC reports. For the long term, the IEA's WEO and OPEC's WOO mark the two ends of the debate.

Oil in 2050: what each one says

Projected global oil demand for 2050, in millions of barrels per day. Today the world consumes about 104.

OPEP · WOO 2026124

AIE · Current Policies113

Equinor · range of scenarios68 a 105

ExxonMobil · Global Outlook> 100

bp · Current Trajectory83

bp · Below 2°34

Demanda actual (aprox.)~104

Only the outlooks that publish the figure. BloombergNEF (peak around 2029), Wood Mackenzie (2032) and CNPC (2040) give the peak year, not the value in 2050.

International agencies and organizations

The references for governments and markets. The IEA represents the consuming countries; OPEC, the producers; the EIA is the U.S. statistics agency.

International Energy Agency (IEA)

World Energy Outlook (WEO)

Última edición: WEO 2025 (Nov-2025); the 2026 edition comes out on 18-Nov-2026
Frecuencia: Anual (November)
Horizonte: 2050
Acceso: Free (registration for the PDF)

The world's most cited outlook: supply and demand of all energies by region, investment, prices and emissions. It works with three scenarios: Current Policies, Stated Policies (what governments have announced) and Net Zero 2050.

What it says: In Stated Policies, oil demand levels off around 2030 at about 102 million barrels per day and then declines slowly; under current policies it keeps growing to 113 mb/d in 2050.

Outlooks energéticos

How to read an outlook

Oil in 2050: what each one says

International agencies and organizations

World Energy Outlook (WEO)

Oil (medium-term report)

Gas Market Report

World Oil Outlook (WOO)

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

International Energy Outlook (IEO)

Global Gas Outlook 2055

IEEJ Outlook

World and China Energy Outlook

World Energy Transitions Outlook

Petroleras

Energy Outlook

Energy Security Scenarios

LNG Outlook

Global Outlook

Energy Outlook

Energy Perspectives

Chevron

Consultoras

Energy Transition Outlook

New Energy Outlook (NEO)

Global Energy Perspective

Energy Transition Outlook

Region and Argentina

Energy Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean

Energy Transition Plan 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

2035 hydrocarbon export scenarios